Brazil has a 2-3 yr window of opportunity to consolidate its gains in controlling Amazon deforestation
Payments from U.S. cap-and-trade, a carbon tax, or a proposed climate change mitigation mechanism could help end Amazon deforestation in Brazil, reducing CO2 emissions 2-5%, by 2020. But Brazil’s window to act is only 2-3 years, say scientists. Funds generated under a U.S. cap-and-trade or a broader U.N.-supported scheme to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and degradation (“REDD”) could play a critical role in bringing deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon to a halt, reports a team writing in the journal Science. But the window of opportunity is short — Brazil has a two to three year window to take actions that would end Amazon deforestation within a decade. Analyzing Brazil’s plan to cut Amazon forest clearing by 70 percent over the next decade and current efforts by major Brazilian beef and soy producers to exclude deforesters from the supply chain, Dan Nepstad of the Woods Hole Research Center and colleagues lay out a scenario under which net forest loss in the Brazilian Amazon could fall to zero by 2020. The external cost of the effort would be $7 to $18 billion, or 13-33 percent of what Americans spend annually on diet foods and beverages. Roughly half the payments would go towards establishing a forest peoples’ fund to pay for “community forest-based economic activities, health, education, and cultural preservation for the region’s indigenous, and traditional forest peoples and smallholder farmers.” |
Ending deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon would reduce global carbon emissions 2-5 percent, safeguard the planet’s largest
reservoir of terrestrial biodiversity, and ensure the continued provision of critical ecosystem services for Brazil and the world. It would also clearly establish Brazil as the leading player in the environmental services market, a sector expected to be worth hundreds of billions of dollars annually in the next 20 years. Brazil’s reduction in emissions from deforestation could alone generate $37 billion to $111 billion between 2013 and 2020 in revenue, some of which could be used to expand the program to end deforestation. Finally, eliminating Amazon deforestation in Brazil would send a powerful message to other countries, showing that it is indeed possible to protect the environment and benefit economically.
“Brazil has a 2-3 year window of opportunity to consolidate its gains in controlling Amazon deforestation,” Nepstad told mongabay.com.
“The political momentum is high today and the drivers of deforestation are still weak, and both of these conditions could change very soon,” he said, noting that Brazil will be holding elections in 11 months and the economy is poised to heat up, raising the prospect of increased demand for commodities produced in the Amazon.